communicologyКоммуникологияCommunicology2311-30652311-3332МАК10.21453/2311-3065-2018-6-1-192-198communicology-230Research ArticleПубликации зарубежных авторовContributions of Foreign AuthorsПеременные вероятности в юридической практике и некоторые коммуникативные составляющиеInterval Probabilities in Juridical Practice and Its Communicative InputsНиколоваН.NikolovaN.

Наталия Николова

Лонсестон TAS

Natalia Nikolova

Launceston TAS

ТоневаД.TonevaD.

Даниела Тонева

Варна

Daniela Toneva

Varna

ИвановаС.IvanovaS.

Снежана Иванова

9027, г. Варна, ул. В. Друмева

 

Snejana Ivanova

9027, Varna, V. Drumev Str.

ТенекеджиевК.TenekedjievK.

Кирилл Тенекеджиев

Австралия, Лонсестон TAS9027, Болгария, г. Варна, ул. В. Друмева

Kiril Tenekedjiev

Australia, Launceston TAS9027, Bulgaria, Varna, V. Drumev Str.

kiril.tenekedjiev@utas.edu.auАвстралийский морской колледж, Университет ТасманииАвстралияAustralian Maritime College, University of TasmaniaAustraliaТехнический университет ВарныБолгарияTechnical University of VarnaBulgariaМорская академия им. Николы ВапцароваБолгарияNikola Vaptsarov Maritime AcademyBulgariaАвстралийский морской колледж, Университет Тасмании; Морская академия им. Николы ВапцароваАвстралияAustralian Maritime College, University of Tasmania; Nikola Vaptsarov Maritime AcademyAustralia20182701202261192198Copyright © Николова Н., Тонева Д., Иванова С., Тенекеджиев К., 20222022Николова Н., Тонева Д., Иванова С., Тенекеджиев К.Nikolova N., Toneva D., Ivanova S., Tenekedjiev K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.communicology.ru/jour/article/view/230

В статье фокусируется внимание на количественной интерпретации судебных процессов, включая коммуникативный аспект. Излагаются некоторые недостатки процесса выявления вины и вынесения вердикта. В анализ юридических решений вводятся субъективные вероятности и некоторые информационнокоммуникационные составляющие. Хотя байесовский вывод является распространенным методом пересмотра убеждений, он требует точных предварительных возможностей и правдоподобия, обычно оцениваемых в виде промежутков. Поэтому в этой работе рассматриваются процедуры введения промежуточных вероятностей в статистическую оценку, которые помогают при анализе доказательств на судебных процессах.

Работа освещает проблемы судебного разбирательства и некоторые коммуникативные элементы, присутствующие при этом. В ней подчеркиваются возможности улучшения процесса анализа решений в судебных процессах путем принятия субъективной вероятности в качестве меры неопределенности в отношении уровня вины обвиняемого. Байесовские и другие подходы могут служить для адаптации убеждений. Ключевым элементом обсуждения здесь является введение промежуточных оценок вероятности и преимуществ, которые они приносят в принятие юридических решений.

The article focuses on the quantitative interpretation of trials, including its communicative inputs. Outlines some of the shortcomings of the process of identifying guilt and verdict. In the analysis of the legal solutions introduced subjective probabilities and some of the information and communication components. While the Bayesian inference is a common method for revision of beliefs, it requires precise prior probabilities and likelihoods, usually assessed in the form of intervals. Therefore this work comments upon procedures to introduce interval probabilities to statistical reasoning that support the analysis of evidence in court trials.

This work highlights the problems of judgment in legal trials and some of the communicative elements that are present here. It emphasizes the possibilities to improve the decision analysis process in trials by adopting subjective probability as a measure of uncertainty about the level of guilt of a defendant judged upon testimonies. Bayesian and other approaches can then serve to adapt beliefs. The key element of the discussion here is the introduction of interval probability estimates and the benefits they bring to legal decision making.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.